Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative under the Trump administration, has arrived in Mexico City for a second round of high-level meetings with Mexican business leaders ahead of the formal review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The visit, which brought together executives from the automotive and steel sectors alongside figures such as Grupo Bimbo's executive chairman Daniel Servitje, signals the degree to which the upcoming review has concentrated attention across North America's most trade-dependent industries.

The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA in 2020, includes a built-in review mechanism requiring the three signatory governments to assess the agreement's performance at regular intervals. That review process is now approaching, and Greer's presence in Mexico City — gathering input directly from the executives whose operations depend on the treaty's provisions — suggests the United States intends to enter the process with a detailed understanding of where leverage exists and where friction is likely.

The Automotive Table

The automotive contingent at the meetings was notably broad. Representatives from General Motors, Nissan, BMW, Mazda, Stellantis, and Mercedes-Benz all participated, a roster that reflects the extent to which Mexico has become a manufacturing hub not only for American automakers but for European and Japanese firms that use the country as a platform for duty-free access to the U.S. market. The USMCA's rules of origin — which require a certain percentage of a vehicle's components to be manufactured within North America to qualify for tariff-free treatment — have been a defining feature of the agreement and a persistent source of compliance pressure for manufacturers.

Any tightening of those requirements, or any shift in how labor value content is calculated, would ripple through supply chains that stretch from Monterrey to Michigan. The automotive sector accounts for a substantial share of bilateral trade between the United States and Mexico, and the companies present at the table have invested heavily in Mexican operations precisely because the USMCA framework made those investments rational. A renegotiation that alters the calculus — whether through higher regional content thresholds, new tariff structures, or stricter enforcement mechanisms — would force a reassessment of production geography across the continent.

The presence of European and Asian manufacturers alongside Detroit's legacy firms also underscores a subtler dynamic: the USMCA review is not purely a bilateral affair between Washington and Mexico City. Companies headquartered in Stuttgart, Yokohama, and Amsterdam have deep stakes in the outcome, even if they have no formal seat at the negotiating table.

Steel and the Logic of Industrial Protection

The steel sector's representation was equally significant. Executives from Ternium, Tenaris, ArcelorMittal, and Deacero met with Greer to discuss the trajectory of industrial metals trade — a domain that has been subject to repeated tariff actions and anti-dumping disputes in recent years. Steel has long served as a bellwether for broader protectionist sentiment in Washington, and the sector's inclusion in these preliminary conversations suggests that metals trade will feature prominently in the review.

The North American steel market operates under a layered regime of tariffs, quotas, and bilateral exemptions that has grown more complex with each successive trade action. For Mexican steelmakers, the central question is whether the review will consolidate the existing framework or introduce new conditions — particularly around Chinese steel transshipment, a concern that has animated U.S. trade policy for over a decade.

Greer's approach — meeting directly with industry before formal government-to-government negotiations begin — mirrors a pattern familiar from previous trade cycles: the trade representative builds a map of commercial dependencies and vulnerabilities, then uses that map to define negotiating priorities. The executives who sat across from Greer were not merely presenting their interests; they were, in effect, providing the raw material from which U.S. negotiating positions will be constructed.

What remains uncertain is the degree to which the Trump administration views the USMCA review as an opportunity for incremental adjustment or as a vehicle for structural change. The distinction matters enormously. An incremental review would fine-tune rules of origin and update digital trade provisions. A structural renegotiation could redefine the terms under which North American manufacturing operates — with consequences that extend well beyond the companies present in the room.

With reporting from Expansión MX.

Source · Expansión MX